Long AUD/USD, EUR/USD. Short GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY. Strongest JPY, weakest GBP.
The currency board appears with the next report.
No cross idea today.
Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. Tier needs all four aligned and no major conflict to reach High.
Nothing has reached its horizon yet. The first direction reads score on Wed 9 Sept.
Hit rates appear once the first reads reach their horizon.
Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; the cross call at fixed holds and until Nahan changed it.
| Strategy | Scored | Hit rate | Right / wrong | Net pips | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-tier trades | 0 | — | — | — | |
| High reads | 0 | — | — | — | |
| Medium reads | 0 | — | — | — | 8 pending, next Wed 9 Sept |
| Low reads | 0 | — | — | — | 1 pending, next Fri 11 Sept |
| Strongest vs weakest cross call, 1 priced | |||||
| Held 1 day | 0 | pending | |||
| Held 3 days | 0 | pending | |||
| Held 5 days | 0 | pending | |||
| Held until the call changed | 0 | pending | |||
| Currency calls, direction against the basket at 3 trading days | |||||
| All currency calls | 0 | — | — | ||
| Pair | Regime | Dominant driver | Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Range regime, rate-differential stalemate | ECB hiking path vs a Fed on hold into US CPI | since Sat 5 Sept |
| GBP/USD | Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay | Stalled BoE path against a crowded sterling short | since Sat 5 Sept |
| USD/JPY | BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime | BoJ rate path repricing against an extreme spec yen short | since Sat 5 Sept |
| AUD/USD | Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime | RBA hike repricing and spec short-covering | since Sat 5 Sept |
| USD/CHF | Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates | SNB negative rates versus a repricing US front end | since Sat 5 Sept |
| USD/CAD | Oil terms-of-trade regime | Crude terms-of-trade shock versus escalating US-Canada tariffs | since Sat 5 Sept |
No high-tier call yet. One is booked only when all four checks align without a major conflict.
| Date | Ranking | Call | Priced | 1d | 3d | 5d | Until changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | JPY vs GBP | Short GBP/JPY | 209.014 | pending | pending | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-05 | JPY vs GBP | Short GBP/JPY | not priced | pending | pending | pending | pending |
| Date | Pair | Side | Tier | Horizon | Reference | Result | Pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | AUD/USD | Long | Medium | 4d | 0.72228 | due Fri 11 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-07 | EUR/USD | Long | Medium | 4d | 1.16333 | due Fri 11 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-07 | GBP/USD | Short | Medium | 4d | 1.35476 | due Fri 11 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-07 | USD/CAD | Short | Low | 4d | 1.38095 | due Fri 11 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-07 | USD/JPY | Short | Medium | 4d | 154.306 | due Fri 11 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-05 | AUD/USD | Long | Medium | 4d | 0.72051 | due Wed 9 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-05 | GBP/USD | Short | Medium | 4d | 1.35170 | due Wed 9 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-05 | USD/CAD | Short | Medium | 5d | 1.38370 | due Thu 10 Sept | pending |
| 2026-09-05 | USD/JPY | Short | Medium | 4d | 156.221 | due Wed 9 Sept | pending |
| Date | Started | Output tokens | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 2026-09-07 16:52 | 27,202 | $0.84 |
| 2026-09-07 | 2026-09-07 14:20 | 23,102 | $0.70 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-05 18:20 | 15,446 | $0.55 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-05 18:10 | 13,770 | $0.50 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-05 16:29 | 15,250 | $0.53 |