Day size: · none (forced). Full report: 2026-09-07.md on the server.
| 🟢 LONG | 🔴 SHORT |
|---|---|
| 1. AUD/USD · MEDIUM ●●○ · ✅❌✅✅ 3/4 ⛔ · 4d | 1. GBP/USD · MEDIUM ●●○ · ✅✅✅✅ 4/4 ⛔ · 5d |
| 2. USD/JPY · MEDIUM ●●○ · ✅❌✅✅ 3/4 ⛔ · 4d | |
| 3. USD/CAD · MEDIUM ●●○ · ✅❌✅➖ 2/4 ⛔ · 5d |
⚪ No bias: EUR/USD, USD/CHF
Ranked by tier, then checks aligned. ✅ aligned ❌ against ➖ neutral, in the order narrative · catalyst · structure · rates. ⚠️ minor conflict, ⛔ major conflict (caps at MEDIUM).
| # | Pair | Dir | Entry | Target | Stop | Horizon | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBP/AUD (cross) | 🔴 SHORT | 1.87580 | 1.86700 | 1.88250 | 4d | 1.3 |
Nearly: GBP/USD 🔴 SHORT (4/4 but ⛔ major conflict: US CPI on Friday 12:30Z sits inside the horizon and is a genuine two-way binary. A soft core print would pull US yields down and lift GBP/USD back through 1.3560, reversing the trade. The crowded 49,575-contract spec short compounds the squeeze risk.)
| Currency | Direction | Conviction | Driver | Checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | 🔴 DOWN | ●●●○ 3/4 | A stalled BoE with cut risk on top of deteriorating UK housing and fiscal worries | ✅✅➖✅ |
| JPY | 🟢 UP | ●●●○ 3/4 | BoJ hike pricing plus official intervention squeezing an extreme spec short | ✅➖✅✅ |
| AUD | 🟢 UP | ●●●○ 3/4 | RBA hike repricing and a widening carry advantage over everyone except the yen | ✅✅✅➖ |
| CHF | 🔴 DOWN | ●●●○ 3/4 | Deeply negative Swiss policy rates make the franc the funding leg of every carry trade | ✅➖✅✅ |
| USD | 🔴 DOWN | ●●○○ 2/4 | A static Fed and falling US yields while others hike, with Japan selling Treasuries | ✅❌➖✅ |
| EUR | ⚪ FLAT | ○○○○ 0/4 | An ECB hike that is already priced, into a political and fiscal news flow that offsets it | ➖➖➖➖ |
| CAD | ⚪ FLAT | ○○○○ 0/4 | Crude terms-of-trade bid cancelled out by the tariff war going live | ➖➖➖➖ |
Direction is against the basket of the other six over 2-5 days; conviction is the number of aligned checks (narrative, catalyst, rates, momentum). Scored at 3 trading days.
The board is one strong currency and one clean weak one, with everything else marking time: JPY +3.39% on the 5d basket against GBP -0.78% and CHF -0.87%, while EUR and CAD are genuinely stalemated ahead of the ECB and the tariff deadline. I am not taking the headline short GBP/JPY — it is 3% off the bottom of its 20-day range after a 3.46% five-day collapse driven by intervention, and that is a chase into an event-sensitive leg. The one I want is short GBP/AUD at 1.8758: same sterling weakness, expressed against a hiking RBA on a four-week grind lower with a tight shelf at 1.8806 to stop behind, and crucially it sidesteps the Friday US CPI binary that put a major conflict on every dollar pair I wrote today. AUD/CHF is the same trade with better fundamentals and a worse entry, so it stays on the watchlist until it either pulls back to 0.5810 or Schlegel is out of the way.
Why this pairing. The obvious trade is short GBP/JPY — strongest against weakest — but GBP/JPY has already fallen 3.46% in five sessions to 3% of its 20-day range with a 188-pip ATR, and the yen leg is a blow-off driven by intervention that can retrace violently on a single US CPI print. GBP/AUD expresses the same weak-sterling view against the other currency with a genuine domestic bid, on a chart that has ground lower for four weeks rather than gapped, and with almost no direct exposure to Friday's US CPI — the exact binary that forced a major conflict onto every one of my dollar pairs today.
Driver: RBA hiking at 4.35% against a stalled BoE with cut risk [rates]
Chart. GBP/AUD closed 1.87585, at 6% of its 20-day range and a fresh 60-day low at 1.87332, well below SMA20 1.89840 and SMA50 1.91071 with a sequence of lower highs since 1.91882 on 19 Aug. The last two sessions have consolidated in a 1.87332-1.87653 box rather than extending, which gives a defined shelf to sell against and a stop above the 3 Sep high at 1.88057.
Support: 1.87330, 1.86700, 1.86000 · Resistance: 1.87650, 1.88060, 1.88490
| Check | State | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| narrative | ✅ aligned | SocGen has the BoE holding with risks of later cuts on mortgage approvals at late-2023 lows, while AUD/USD hit a three-month high on intensifying RBA hike bets and Australia's 10-year is back above 5.2%. |
| catalyst | ✅ aligned | Inside the horizon: BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings on 8 Sep and UK GDP m/m forecast at 0.0% from 0.3% on 11 Sep, against China trade data due for AUD where a beat firms the demand proxy. |
| structure | ✅ aligned | Price is at a 60-day low of 1.87332 below both the SMA20 at 1.89840 and SMA50 at 1.91071, with a two-day consolidation high at 1.87653 and a clean prior swing at 1.88057 to hide the stop behind. |
| rates ★ dominant | ✅ aligned | Australia's immediate rate is 4.35% and rising against the UK's 3.7298% effectively flat, and specs are less short AUD (-10.1% of OI, covering +5,049) than GBP (-15.6% of OI, adding -5,051). |
| conflict | ⚠️ minor | Selling a pair at a 60-day low is a chase, and the crowded GBP spec short at -15.6% of open interest means any hawkish surprise at Wednesday's hearings gets a squeeze. Neither is a scheduled two-way binary on the scale of US CPI, so I grade it minor rather than major. |
Tier: HIGH ●●● — 4 of 4 checks aligned · minor conflict
Trade (call #1): 🔴 SHORT entry 1.87580 · target 1.86700 · stop 1.88250 · 4 days
Sell near spot 1.87585 with the stop at 1.8825, above the 3 Sep swing high at 1.88057 and clear of the 1.87653 consolidation top, so it takes a genuine trend break to stop me. Target 1.8670 is 88 pips, slightly under one 97-pip ATR14 over four sessions and inside the recent daily drift, which is the discipline I lost money on in prototype 1 by setting targets too far for the horizon.
Why this pairing. Cleanest expression of the two clearest board views that do not involve the yen: AUD is the only non-yen currency positive on the 5d basket at +0.08% and CHF is last at -0.87%. It pairs a 4.35% rising policy rate against the only negative rate in the board, and neither leg carries US CPI exposure directly. I am flagging it rather than trading it because the entry is at 95% of the 20-day range and 60-day highs, and Schlegel speaks inside the horizon.
Driver: 4.35% and rising versus -0.045% and falling [rates]
Chart. AUD/CHF closed 0.58416 at 95% of its 20-day range and just under the 60-day high at 0.58514, in an unbroken uptrend above SMA20 0.57679 and SMA50 0.56998 with higher lows since 0.56640 on 19 Aug. The nearest defensible shelf is the 3 Sep low at 0.58070, roughly one ATR14 of 40 pips below spot.
Support: 0.58070, 0.57900, 0.57660 · Resistance: 0.58510, 0.58800
| Check | State | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| narrative | ✅ aligned | RBA hike bets are intensifying with the Australian 10-year above 5.2%, while DBS sees downside risks building for the franc as policy diverges and Monday's franc moves were purely second-hand. |
| catalyst | ➖ neutral | China trade data supports the AUD leg, but SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks on 11 Sep 09:15Z inside the horizon and any hint on the negative-rate regime is a two-way risk to the short-franc side. |
| structure | ✅ aligned | Uptrend intact above SMA20 0.57679 and SMA50 0.56998 with a rising sequence of lows, but the entry sits at 95% of the 20-day range 0.56640-0.58514, which is buying into resistance rather than at a level. |
| rates ★ dominant | ✅ aligned | Australia at 4.35% and rising against Switzerland's -0.045% and falling is the widest carry gap on the board, and specs are net short both (AUD -10.1% of OI, CHF -16.7% of OI) so the squeeze risk favours the long leg. |
| conflict | ⚠️ minor | Entry is at the top of the 60-day range with only 35 pips to the nearest real support against a 40-pip ATR, so any stop that respects structure is wider than the realistic 2-5 day target. With the catalyst check neutral on the Schlegel risk, I am not booking it. |
Tier: MEDIUM ●●○ — 3 of 4 checks aligned · neutral: catalyst · minor conflict
Nothing. No check, bias, tier or regime moved.
Regime: Range regime, rate-differential stalemate — driver ECB hiking into an inflation overshoot vs a static Fed
Checks: narrative ➖ · catalyst ➖ · structure ➖ · rates ➖★
Since yesterday (· none): Price is 14 pips higher and the checklist is unchanged. I am waiting for the ECB press conference on Thursday to break the range one way or the other.
No change and no call. The German state-election result that analysts called potentially the most consequential of the postwar era moved EUR/USD by seven pips, which tells you the euro is trading the ECB and nothing else. I am waiting for Thursday: the 25bp hike to 2.65% is priced, so the euro's move comes from whether Lagarde gives a road map, and a preview over the weekend suggested she will not. All four checks are neutral for a fifth session; a daily close outside 1.15853 or 1.16387 with an ECB reason behind it is what turns this into a tradeable pair. Bund yields rose Monday ahead of the meeting, which is a small euro-supportive tell worth tracking.
Support 1.16077, 1.15853, 1.15670 · Resistance 1.16387, 1.16780, 1.17123
Regime: Rate-differential regime with an energy cost overlay — driver Stalled BoE with cut risk vs a Fed anchored by rising yields
Checks: narrative ✅ · catalyst ✅ · structure ✅ · rates ✅★ · conflict ⛔ major
Since yesterday (▫️ small): Bias, regime and tier unchanged. Price rose 26 pips over the weekend gap on dollar softness and the SocGen note firmed the cut-risk narrative, but the pair remains below SMA20 and inside the same lower-high structure.
Short bias held, no trade, tier capped by the CPI risk. Sterling's 26-pip weekend gap and Monday's 0.23% gain were dollar-side, not sterling-side: the pair covered 42 pips with American desks closed. The checklist reads four aligned with a major conflict, so this stays a direction read rather than a position. Tuesday's Monetary Policy Report Hearings are the first test: dovish testimony confirms the SocGen read and opens 1.34753, hawkish testimony into a 49,575-contract spec short squeezes the pair back over 1.3560 and I stand down. A daily close above 1.35715 invalidates the structure check.
Support 1.35062, 1.34753, 1.34200 · Resistance 1.35612, 1.35971, 1.36435
Regime: BoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regime — driver Rising Japanese short rates against an extreme spec short in yen
Checks: narrative ✅ · catalyst ❌ · structure ✅ · rates ✅★ · conflict ⛔ major
Since yesterday (▫️ small): Bias, regime, driver and tier all unchanged, so this is small by definition even though price moved 193 pips over the gap and another 1.22% on the day. What changed is the level: the pair is now at the 60-day range floor rather than approaching it, which worsens the risk-reward of a fresh short.
The biggest move on the board and I am not chasing it. USD/JPY gapped 193 pips lower, 128% of a daily ATR, and closed at 154.294 with the yen past its intervention peak and at seven-month highs. The bias stays short because the mechanism is intact: rising Japanese short rates, official yen buying funded by roughly $90bn of Treasury sales, and a still-enormous 92,227-contract spec short that grew last week. What holds me back is entry, not direction: the pair sits on the 60-day floor at 154.064 with US CPI on Friday inside the horizon, and a stop has to sit above 156.25, which is 200 pips away. A retracement toward 155.60-156.20 that fails would be the trade; a daily close back above 156.25 says the squeeze is done.
Support 154.048, 154.064 · Resistance 155.660, 156.246, 158.360
Regime: Commodity terms-of-trade and carry regime — driver RBA hike repricing and widening carry vs a static Fed
Checks: narrative ✅ · catalyst ❌ · structure ✅ · rates ✅★ · conflict ⛔ major
Since yesterday (▫️ small): Bias, regime and tier unchanged. The pair added 17 pips over the gap and 0.22% on the day to a new three-month high, so the setup is intact but the entry is worse; the deterioration in AUD/JPY is the new caution.
Long bias held, no trade, because the entry is at the ceiling. AUD/USD closed 0.72223 at a three-month high on RBA hike bets with the Australian 10-year back above 5.2%, and specs are still net short 39,406 contracts, which is the fuel. What stops me buying here is that the pair is at 99% of its 20-day range with US CPI on Friday, and that AUD/JPY has fallen 2.76% in five days to 3% of its own range, so the Aussie is strong on rates while the risk barometer is weak. China trade data is the near-term swing factor: a strong export print firms the demand-proxy leg. A daily close above 0.72265 confirms the break toward 0.7280; a close back under 0.71766 breaks the structure and I drop the bias.
Support 0.72010, 0.71766, 0.71223 · Resistance 0.72265, 0.72800
Regime: Range regime anchored by SNB negative rates — driver Deeply negative Swiss rates against a repricing US front end
Checks: narrative ➖ · catalyst ➖ · structure ➖ · rates ➖★
Since yesterday (· none): Nothing material. I am waiting for Schlegel on Friday or a range break outside 0.80619-0.81100 to give the pair a direction.
No call, and this is the correct output for a pair whose weekend gap was three pips. The franc is the weakest currency on the board over five days at -0.87% and the dollar is second weakest at -0.72%, which nets to a range. Everything USD/CHF did on Monday was a reflection of yen strength dragging the dollar, not a Swiss impulse. All four checks are neutral; I need either a Schlegel signal on Friday or a US CPI surprise to break 0.81559 or 0.80619 before this pair earns a bias. Until then the SNB's negative rate keeps a floor under the pair and the range does the rest.
Support 0.80619, 0.80376, 0.79480 · Resistance 0.81100, 0.81305, 0.81559
Regime: Oil terms-of-trade regime — driver Crude terms-of-trade shock against a trade-war drag
Checks: narrative ✅★ · catalyst ❌ · structure ✅ · rates ➖ · conflict ⛔ major
Since yesterday (▫️ small): Bias, regime and tier unchanged. The pair fell 24 pips over the gap and crude added another 1.27%, while the tariff deadline moved from abstract to tomorrow midnight with the PMO confirming no talks are scheduled.
Short bias held, no trade, because the tariff deadline lands tomorrow. The oil case is as strong as it gets, with WTI at 92.64 and Goldman flagging $120 if Hormuz attacks intensify, and the Loonie gained Monday on exactly that. What worries me is the transmission: crude is up 8% in five days and USD/CAD is down only 0.27%, so the tariff drag is eating most of the terms-of-trade benefit. The extreme 108,143-contract spec short in CAD is squeeze fuel if the tariff headlines land softer than feared, but it also means the market already knows this story. I want a daily close below 1.37829 to confirm the oil bid is winning; a close back above 1.38714 says tariffs are the dominant force and I drop the bias.
Support 1.38000, 1.37829, 1.37326 · Resistance 1.38415, 1.38714, 1.39056
Three weekend stories mattered and the open told me which one the market cared about. The loudest headline was political: a projected far-right AfD landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, described by analysts as possibly the most consequential German state-election result of the postwar era. EUR/USD opened seven pips higher, 14% of a daily ATR, and finished the session at 1.16279. By the rule that gap size, not headline drama, sizes impact, that is a small event. Bund yields did rise on Monday, partly on the AfD result and partly ahead of the ECB, so the fiscal-risk channel is worth watching, but the currency ignored it.
The second story was Trump's weekend blitz on the Canadian dollar, repeated across at least six outlets, calling the currency imbalance unacceptable and pairing it with a threat to block Bombardier sales ahead of Tuesday's tariff deadline. USD/CAD opened 24 pips lower, not higher: the market chose the oil story over the tariff story, because crude went into the weekend on a report that Iran's exports had fallen to zero and came out of it with US-Iran strikes around Hormuz and a hit on Saudi Aramco facilities, closing at 92.64. The third and largest move needed no weekend headline at all: USD/JPY opened 193 pips below Friday's close, 128% of a daily ATR, and never looked back, as the yen surged past its intervention peak to a seven-month high on BoJ hike expectations and the disclosure that Japan sold close to $90bn of Treasuries to fund record intervention. That is the week's dominant flow. UK mortgage approvals at their lowest since January 2024, reported over the weekend, did nothing to sterling on the open, which gapped 26 pips higher on dollar softness.
| Impact | Ccy | Headline | Pushes | Nahan's reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔸 medium | CAD | Trump calls Canada's currency imbalance unacceptable, targets Bombardier | CAD down → USD/CAD up, but oil overrode it | Repeated across multiple outlets through Saturday and extended Monday with a threat to block Bombardier sales in the US. USD/CAD opened 24 pips lower anyway, which tells me oil is the dominant CAD driver for now, but this is an official stance against a lower USD/CAD. |
| 🔸 medium | USD | Former Trump adviser: Iran's oil exports have fallen to zero | Oil up → USD/CAD down, AUD/USD up, inflation risk up | The supply-side setup for Monday's move, which took WTI to 92.64 and six-week highs. It feeds directly into Friday's US CPI forecast of 0.4% m/m. |
| 🔸 medium | EUR | ECB preview: another hike, but no road map | EUR neutral into Thursday | Frames the 10 September decision, where the main refinancing rate is forecast to rise to 2.65% from 2.40%. If the hike comes without guidance, the euro's range holds. |
| ▫️ small | EUR | AfD projected landslide in Saxony-Anhalt state election | EUR flat → EUR/USD unmoved; Bund yields up | Analysts called it possibly the most consequential postwar German state result, and EUR/USD opened seven pips higher, 14% of a daily ATR. Small until the market prices a fiscal channel; Bund yields did rise Monday. |
| ▫️ small | GBP | UK mortgage approvals fall to lowest since January 2024 | GBP down → GBP/USD down over time | Cited by Societe Generale on Monday as evidence of weakening housing demand and a reason the BoE risks later cuts. Sterling still gapped 26 pips higher on dollar softness, so no immediate price effect. |
| ▫️ small | EUR | Europe's good, bad and ugly: resilient growth, ECB grey zone, French fiscal risk | EUR neutral | Consistent with ABN AMRO's resilient-growth-worrying-inflation framing published Monday. Background, not a mover. |
| ▫️ small | USD | US debt worse than it seems, Treasury yields an all-hands-on-deck situation | US yields up → mixed USD | Sits alongside the news that Japan sold close to $90bn of Treasuries to fund intervention. A supply story worth tracking with the 10-year at 86% of its 20-day range. |
| ▫️ small | CAD | Canadian consumer boycotts and counter-tariff coverage intensify | CAD down modestly | Colour around the Tuesday deadline rather than a new fact. It reinforces that no de-escalation path is being discussed. |
| ▫️ small | AUD | AUD/USD eyes May high ahead of US CPI | AUD up → AUD/USD up | Preview commentary that matched the open: AUD/USD gapped 17 pips higher and made a three-month high Monday. |
| Impact | Ccy | Headline | Pushes | Nahan's reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔥 large | JPY | Yen surges past intervention peak to strongest since February | JPY up → USD/JPY down, EUR/JPY down, GBP/JPY down | USD/JPY closed 154.294, at the base of its 60-day range, after a 3.41% five-day fall. This is the dominant flow in the majors this week. |
| 🔥 large | JPY | Japan sold almost $90bn in US Treasuries to fund record yen intervention | JPY up → USD/JPY down; US yields up | Confirms the official bid is behind the move, which means the policy authority is on the same side as the trend rather than against it. It also adds supply pressure to Treasuries into Friday's CPI. |
| 🔥 large | JPY | USD falls as the yen surges on BoJ rate-hike expectations | JPY up → USD/JPY down | The rate mechanism behind the intervention: Japan's immediate rate has risen to 0.841% from 0.727%. This is what makes the regime durable rather than a one-day squeeze. |
| 🔥 large | CAD | Oil prices surge to six-week high as US-Iran strikes intensify in Hormuz; Aramco facilities hit | Oil up → USD/CAD down, AUD/USD up, US CPI risk up | WTI closed 92.64, up 8.02% in five days at 95% of its 20-day range. It is simultaneously a CAD terms-of-trade positive and a US inflation risk into Friday. |
| 🔸 medium | CAD | Canada's retaliatory tariffs take effect at midnight; PMO says no talks scheduled | CAD down → USD/CAD up | The live event inside my horizon and the reason USD/CAD stays a direction read rather than a position. Sapporo moving beer production out of Canada is an early real-economy example. |
| 🔸 medium | AUD | Australian Dollar hits three-month high as RBA rate hike bets intensify | AUD up → AUD/USD up, EUR/AUD down | AUD/USD reached 0.72265 with the Australian 10-year back above 5.2%. It moves the pair to 99% of its 20-day range, which worsens entry even as it confirms the driver. |
| 🔸 medium | GBP | Societe Generale: BoE holds but risks later cuts | GBP down → GBP/USD down, EUR/GBP up | Weakening housing demand with mortgage approvals at late-2023 lows and limited wage second-round effects. This is the rate-path evidence behind the sterling short bias. |
| 🔸 medium | CAD | Canadian dollar gains as oil rally offsets jobs gloom | CAD up → USD/CAD down | Explicitly names the mechanism I have as the dominant driver, with both markets closed for Labour Day. Thin liquidity means Tuesday's session is the real test. |
| ▫️ small | EUR | Bund yields rise after AfD win and ahead of ECB meeting | EUR mildly up → EUR/USD up | Yields moved, the currency did not. Worth watching as a fiscal-risk channel if French and German spreads widen. |
| ▫️ small | EUR | ABN AMRO: resilient euro area growth, worrying inflation; German GDP forecast raised to 1.3% | EUR up marginally | Supports the ECB hiking into an overshoot but does not change a range that has held for four weeks. |
| ▫️ small | AUD | China trade data preview: a beat would firm AUD as a demand proxy | AUD up on a beat → AUD/USD up | Not in the scheduled calendar but relevant inside the horizon; a strong export print would validate the commodity leg of the AUD regime. |
| ▫️ small | USD | Goldman Sachs: oil could reach $120 if Middle East shipping attacks intensify | Oil up → USD/CAD down, US inflation expectations up | A scenario, not a forecast, but it frames the tail risk into a CPI week. |
| ▫️ small | CHF | SNB reserves edge higher as summer surge loses momentum; Schlegel speaks Friday | CHF neutral to down | Consistent with a Swiss 3M rate at -0.045% and the franc as the weakest basket currency over five days. No trade until Friday's remarks. |
| ▫️ small | USD | VIX up 5.30% to 15.30, S&P 500 down 0.38% | Mild risk-off → AUD/JPY down | AUD/JPY fell 1.04% to 111.383, at 3% of its 20-day range, which is the one warning sign against the AUD long. |
Strongest JPY, weakest GBP → 🔴 SHORT GBP/JPY. JPY is the clear strongest, +3.39% against the basket in five days and +2.43% over twenty, with a mechanism behind it: rising Japanese short rates, BoJ hike pricing and official intervention against an extreme spec short. On the five-day basket CHF is marginally weakest at -0.87% versus GBP at -0.78%, but the franc's slide is largely mechanical funding-currency weakness against the yen with the SNB anchoring rates at -0.045%, while sterling has an identifiable forward driver: the BoE on hold with cut risk building, mortgage approvals at late-2023 lows, UK GDP forecast at 0.0% on Friday, and specs adding to a net short of 49,575 contracts. I am restating the existing SHORT GBP/JPY call rather than churning the pair for a 9bp basket difference. The risk is stated plainly: GBP/JPY at 208.946 sits at 3% of its 20-day range after a 3.46% five-day fall, so this is a call on direction, not on entry timing.
TRADES (HIGH calls with target/stop): none resolved yet; 1 open DIRECTION READS (was the bias right at the horizon?) HIGH none scored yet; 1 pending, next due Fri 11 Sept MEDIUM none scored yet; 13 pending, next due Wed 9 Sept LOW none scored yet CROSS CALL (strongest vs weakest): 1 priced — right/wrong: 1d pending · 3d pending · 5d pending · until changed pending; first result due Tue 8 Sept CURRENCY CALLS (direction vs basket, 3 trading days): none scored yet; 5 pending, next due Thu 10 Sept
Four direction reads and no trades. Every pair with a bias has a scheduled event inside its horizon that could reverse it, and the calendar is stacked: the ECB on Thursday, US PPI Thursday, US CPI and UK GDP on Friday, Canada's counter-tariffs at midnight tonight. In that setup the honest output is direction, not position, and I would rather take the medium-tier scoring than manufacture a HIGH call into a CPI print. I am watching three things. One, whether USD/JPY can retrace toward 155.60-156.20 and fail, which is the only entry that gives a short a defensible stop; a close back above 156.25 would say the squeeze is finished and I would drop the bias. Two, whether USD/CAD closes below 1.37829 after the tariffs bite, which would tell me the oil terms-of-trade impulse is beating the trade-war drag; a close above 1.38714 says the opposite and I stand down. Three, US CPI at 0.4% m/m with crude up 12.80% in twenty days; a hot core print lifts yields, supports the dollar, and would hurt the AUD long and help the sterling short simultaneously. Note that five of six pairs have rates_positioning as the dominant driver. I rechecked each against its own mechanism before keeping it: Japan's short rates, the RBA's repricing, the ECB-Fed spread and the SNB's negative anchor are all genuinely rate-driven, and USD/CAD alone is a narrative pair on oil. If AUD starts trading iron ore and China data more than the RBA, I will move that driver to narrative and log it.