Nahan

FX research desk
Monday 7 September
Report published 07:00 London. Page built 2026-09-07 19:30 UTC

Six majors, one analyst, every call scored.

Long AUD/USD. Short GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY. Strongest JPY, weakest GBP: short GBP/JPY.

GBP/USD
ShortMedium
US front-end repricing versus a stalled BoE
4 of 45 days
Major conflict
AUD/USD
LongMedium
RBA hike repricing and the widening carry versus a static Fed
3 of 44 days
Minor conflict
USD/JPY
ShortMedium
Rising Japanese short rates against an extreme spec short in yen
3 of 44 days
Minor conflict
USD/CAD
ShortMedium
Crude terms-of-trade shock supporting CAD against a trade-war drag
2 of 45 days
Major conflict
EUR/USD
No biasLow
Fed vs ECB policy-rate stalemate, with the ECB now hiking into an inflation overshoot
0 of 44 days
 
USD/CHF
No biasLow
Deeply negative Swiss rates against a repricing US front end
0 of 43 days
 

Squares are the four checks in order narrative, catalyst, structure, rates: filled is aligned, crossed is against, empty is neutral; the ringed square is the dominant driver. Tier needs all four aligned and no major conflict to reach High.

Direction reads
none scored yet, 12 pending. First result Wed 9 Sept
High-tier trades
none booked yet
Cross call
Short GBP/JPY
1 priced, first score Mon 7 Sept
Open calls
0
book is flat
Research cost
$4.15
9 reports, $0.46 each

Track record

Cumulative pips by strategy

Nothing has reached its horizon yet. The first direction reads score on Wed 9 Sept.

Hit rate by tier

Hit rates appear once the first reads reach their horizon.

Scorecard

Reads are scored on direction at the horizon; trades on target, stop or expiry; the cross call at fixed holds and until Nahan changed it.

StrategyScoredHit rateRight / wrongNet pips
High-tier trades0
High reads0
Medium reads012 pending, next Wed 9 Sept
Low reads0
Strongest vs weakest cross call, 1 priced
Held 1 day0pending
Held 3 days0pending
Held 5 days0pending
Held until the call changed0pending

Regimes

PairRegimeDominant driverHeld
EUR/USDRange regime, rate-differential stalemateFed vs ECB policy-rate stalemate, with the ECB now hiking into an inflation overshootsince Sat 5 Sept
GBP/USDRate-differential regime with an energy cost overlayUS front-end repricing versus a stalled BoEsince Sat 5 Sept
USD/JPYBoJ normalisation and short-squeeze regimeRising Japanese short rates against an extreme spec short in yensince Sat 5 Sept
AUD/USDCommodity terms-of-trade and carry regimeRBA hike repricing and the widening carry versus a static Fedsince Sat 5 Sept
USD/CHFRange regime anchored by SNB negative ratesDeeply negative Swiss rates against a repricing US front endsince Sat 5 Sept
USD/CADOil terms-of-trade regimeCrude terms-of-trade shock supporting CAD against a trade-war dragsince Sat 5 Sept

Book

High-tier calls

No high-tier call yet. One is booked only when all four checks align without a major conflict.

Strongest vs weakest

DateRankingCallPriced1d3d5dUntil changed
2026-09-07JPY vs GBPShort GBP/JPY209.043pendingpendingpendingpending
2026-09-06JPY vs GBPShort GBP/JPYnot pricedpendingpendingpendingpending
2026-09-05JPY vs GBPShort GBP/JPYnot pricedpendingpendingpendingpending

Direction reads

DatePairSideTierHorizonReferenceResultPips
2026-09-07AUD/USDLongMedium4d0.72213due Fri 11 Septpending
2026-09-07GBP/USDShortMedium5d1.35408due Sat 12 Septpending
2026-09-07USD/CADShortMedium5d1.38120due Sat 12 Septpending
2026-09-07USD/JPYShortMedium4d154.401due Fri 11 Septpending
2026-09-06AUD/USDLongMedium4d0.72051due Thu 10 Septpending
2026-09-06GBP/USDShortMedium5d1.35170due Fri 11 Septpending
2026-09-06USD/CADShortMedium5d1.38370due Fri 11 Septpending
2026-09-06USD/JPYShortMedium4d156.221due Thu 10 Septpending
2026-09-05AUD/USDLongMedium4d0.72051due Wed 9 Septpending
2026-09-05GBP/USDShortMedium4d1.35170due Wed 9 Septpending
2026-09-05USD/CADShortMedium5d1.38370due Thu 10 Septpending
2026-09-05USD/JPYShortMedium4d156.221due Wed 9 Septpending

Reports

Runs

DateStartedOutput tokensCost
2026-09-072026-09-07 15:5326,965$0.88
2026-09-072026-09-07 15:3427,218$0.88
2026-09-062026-09-06 11:1427,587$0.82
2026-09-052026-09-05 18:2015,446$0.55
2026-09-052026-09-05 18:1013,770$0.50
2026-09-052026-09-05 16:2915,250$0.53